ANALISIS STATISTIK TEMPORAL ERUPSI GUNUNGAPI DI INDONESIA
Indonesia was formed by the interaction of the three major tectonic plates. The tectonic plates are India-Australia plate, the Eurasian plate and the Pacific plate, so that almost 13% of volcanoes in the world (129 pieces of active volcanoes) located in the Indonesian archipelago. The volcanoes has...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| 格式: | Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed |
| 出版: |
[Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada
2013
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| 主題: | |
| 在線閱讀: | https://repository.ugm.ac.id/122825/ http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=62933 |
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| 機構: | Universitas Gadjah Mada |
| 總結: | Indonesia was formed by the interaction of the three major tectonic plates. The
tectonic plates are India-Australia plate, the Eurasian plate and the Pacific plate,
so that almost 13% of volcanoes in the world (129 pieces of active volcanoes)
located in the Indonesian archipelago. The volcanoes has the potential to cause
natural disasters with the different intensity and power. Volcanic activity is a
natural occurrence that is difficult to predict and may be considered as chaotic
with no clear shape. Statistical methods can be applied to explain the pattern of
volcanic eruptions as well as to help forecast future volcanic eruption activity. In
this study, three temporal statistical methods applied are exponential distribution,
Weibull distribution and Log-Logistic distribution. In general, the Log-Logistics
distribution provides the highest probability of eruption that occurred within a
specific time in the future with a 95% confidence level. Pattern of volcanic
eruption in Indonesia are not normally distributed, so that the pattern of volcanic
eruptions is a random. Qualitatively, the biggest eruption will follow the longest
repose time interval. However, the magnitude of repose time no influence on the
magnitude of VEI and doesn�t affect to the probability of occurrence the volcanic
eruptions in Indonesia. The average potential energy of the volcanic eruption in
Indonesia period 1800-2012 amounted to 1,12587 x 1024 ergs and the average
thermal energy of the volcanic eruption period 1800-2012 amounted to 1.29537 x
1024 ergs. Therefore, the total energy of the volcanic eruption in Indonesia
amounted to 2,42124 x 1024 ergs. |
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