Analysis and evaluation of maritime collision risk based on catastrophe theory
Maritime transportation is of importance to the globalization of trade and economy. However, a maritime accident could cause severe consequences such as enormous property damage and life loss. Consequently, the researches on how to minimize maritime risk level and improve maritime traffic safety...
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| 格式: | Theses and Dissertations |
| 語言: | English |
| 出版: |
2018
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| 主題: | |
| 在線閱讀: | http://hdl.handle.net/10356/75712 |
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| 總結: | Maritime transportation is of importance to the globalization of trade and economy.
However, a maritime accident could cause severe consequences such as enormous
property damage and life loss. Consequently, the researches on how to minimize
maritime risk level and improve maritime traffic safety are significant and meaningful.
Nevertheless, few researches have drawn attentions to the development process of
maritime traffic accident and the determination of the potential relevant factors that
might cause the accident. To address those research gaps, this research is conducted
to propose a quantitative method for maritime accident analysis and collision risk
evaluation.
The research consists of four main phases. Firstly, catastrophe theory is adopted to
describe maritime traffic system, which is a complex and nonlinear system containing
the components of human, vessel, and environment. Secondly, a cusp catastrophe
model for maritime traffic system is established to analyze the evolutionary process
of a maritime accident. Thirdly, catastrophe progression method is applied to
quantitatively evaluate maritime collision risk based on the performance of each
potential relevant factors. Finally, two maritime collision cases are discussed from
the perspectives of maritime accident analysis and risk evaluation. Accordingly, the
feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed in this research are verified. |
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