Econometric analyses of liquefied petroleum gas and product tanker shipping markets
Today, crude oil is refined all over the world. However, there is a mismatch of refined products between supply and demand, among and within various regions due to the different numbers of refineries, refinery specifications and outputs, and demand in the region. Therefore, refined products need...
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| 格式: | Theses and Dissertations |
| 語言: | English |
| 出版: |
2019
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| 主題: | |
| 在線閱讀: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/83539 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/49753 |
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| 機構: | Nanyang Technological University |
| 語言: | English |
| 總結: | Today, crude oil is refined all over the world. However, there is a mismatch of refined products
between supply and demand, among and within various regions due to the different numbers
of refineries, refinery specifications and outputs, and demand in the region. Therefore, refined
products need to be transported by sea to balance supply and demand, which constitutes an
important part of the energy supply chain. This thesis aims to provide econometric analyses of
product tanker and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) shipping markets - the dominant markets
for refined product seaborne transportation.
This research starts with a review of past work on tramp shipping freight market modeling,
identifying the major trends and methods in each topic. The existing research can be classified
into four categories, namely supply-demand modeling, freight rate process modeling, freight
rate forecasting and freight rate relationships. The study also reviews the specific literature on
LPG and product tanker shipping market. Based on the review, major literature gaps are
identified, namely the lack of coverage for LPG and product tanker shipping market, the
inadequacy of current methodologies in tackling shipping freight market relationships, and
limited research in spatial pattern analysis. Based on the literature review, specific models are
proposed to tackle the research problems, including structural equation modeling, copula
model, and discrete choice modeling. Accordingly, econometric analyses of the LPG shipping
market are provided. Specifically, the relationship among very large gas carrier (VLGC)
market variables, VLGC freight rate dependency with product price arbitrage and oil prices,
and VLGC vessel destination choices have been studied. Last but not least, a disaggregate
approach has been used to study the freight relationships across major routes for the product
tanker market.
This research provides useful guidance for both academics and industrial practitioners on better
understanding the freight market dynamics for chartering, asset allocation and diversification
purposes. It also fills the gap in the existent shipping literature by analyzing the LPG and
product tanker shipping markets, which is of great importance in the seaborne transportation
family, however, received limited research attention. |
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