Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand
Background: Developing a quantitative understanding of pandemic influenza dynamics in South- East Asia is important for informing future pandemic planning. Hence, transmission dynamics of influenza A/H1N1 were determined across space and time in Thailand. Methods: Dates of symptom onset were obta...
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th-mahidol.25702023-04-12T15:30:30Z Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand Aronrag Meeyai Ben Cooper Richard Coker Wirichada Pan-ngum Pasakorn Akarasewi Sopon Iamsirithaworn อรุณรักษ์ คูเปอร์ มีใย Aronrag Meeyai Mahidol university. Faculty of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology Mahidol university. Faculty of Tropical Medicine. Department of Tropical Hygiene Mahidol university. Faculty of Tropical Medicine. Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit Reproduction Number Pandemic Influenza H1N1 Thailand Open Access article Background: Developing a quantitative understanding of pandemic influenza dynamics in South- East Asia is important for informing future pandemic planning. Hence, transmission dynamics of influenza A/H1N1 were determined across space and time in Thailand. Methods: Dates of symptom onset were obtained for all daily laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A/H1N1pdm in Thailand from 3 May 2009 to 26 December 2010 for four different geographic regions (Central, North, North-East, and South). These data were analysed using a probabilistic epidemic reconstruction, and estimates of the effective reproduction number, R(t), were derived by region and over time. Results: Estimated R(t) values for the first wave peaked at 1.54 (95% CI: 1.42-1.71) in the Central region and 1.64 (95% CI: 1.38-1.92) in the North, whilst the corresponding values in the North-East and the South were 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17-1.46) and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.32-1.45) respectively. As the R(t) in the Central region fell below one, the value of R(t) in the rest of Thailand increased above one. R(t) was above one for 30 days continuously through the first wave in all regions of Thailand. During the second wave R(t) was only marginally above one in all regions except the South. Conclusions: In Thailand, the value of R(t) varied by region in the two pandemic waves. Higher R(t) estimates were found in Central and Northern regions in the first wave. Knowledge of regional variation in transmission potential is needed for predicting the course of future pandemics and for analysing the potential impact of control measures. This research project was supported by the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA), Thailand. 2015-10-16T07:32:41Z 2017-07-12T07:55:04Z 2015-10-16T07:32:41Z 2017-07-12T07:55:04Z 2015-10-16 2012 Research Article WHO South-East Asia Journal of Public Health. Vol.1, No.1 (2012), 59-68 https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/2570 eng Mahidol university application/pdf |
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Reproduction Number Pandemic Influenza H1N1 Thailand Open Access article |
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Reproduction Number Pandemic Influenza H1N1 Thailand Open Access article Aronrag Meeyai Ben Cooper Richard Coker Wirichada Pan-ngum Pasakorn Akarasewi Sopon Iamsirithaworn อรุณรักษ์ คูเปอร์ มีใย Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand |
description |
Background: Developing a quantitative understanding of pandemic influenza dynamics in South-
East Asia is important for informing future pandemic planning. Hence, transmission dynamics of
influenza A/H1N1 were determined across space and time in Thailand.
Methods: Dates of symptom onset were obtained for all daily laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza
A/H1N1pdm in Thailand from 3 May 2009 to 26 December 2010 for four different geographic
regions (Central, North, North-East, and South). These data were analysed using a probabilistic
epidemic reconstruction, and estimates of the effective reproduction number, R(t), were derived
by region and over time.
Results: Estimated R(t) values for the first wave peaked at 1.54 (95% CI: 1.42-1.71) in the Central
region and 1.64 (95% CI: 1.38-1.92) in the North, whilst the corresponding values in the North-East
and the South were 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17-1.46) and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.32-1.45) respectively. As the
R(t) in the Central region fell below one, the value of R(t) in the rest of Thailand increased above
one. R(t) was above one for 30 days continuously through the first wave in all regions of Thailand.
During the second wave R(t) was only marginally above one in all regions except the South.
Conclusions: In Thailand, the value of R(t) varied by region in the two pandemic waves. Higher
R(t) estimates were found in Central and Northern regions in the first wave. Knowledge of regional
variation in transmission potential is needed for predicting the course of future pandemics and for
analysing the potential impact of control measures. |
author2 |
Aronrag Meeyai |
author_facet |
Aronrag Meeyai Aronrag Meeyai Ben Cooper Richard Coker Wirichada Pan-ngum Pasakorn Akarasewi Sopon Iamsirithaworn อรุณรักษ์ คูเปอร์ มีใย |
format |
Article |
author |
Aronrag Meeyai Ben Cooper Richard Coker Wirichada Pan-ngum Pasakorn Akarasewi Sopon Iamsirithaworn อรุณรักษ์ คูเปอร์ มีใย |
author_sort |
Aronrag Meeyai |
title |
Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand |
title_short |
Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand |
title_full |
Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand |
title_fullStr |
Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand |
title_sort |
pandemic influenza h1n1 2009 in thailand |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/2570 |
_version_ |
1781415761137369088 |