#TITLE_ALTERNATIVE#

• Main Author: RAMADIANA PUTRI (NIM 10105025), CITRA
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/10140
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

DHF-DSS (Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever-Dengue Shock Syndrome) is a disease caused by dengue virus and transmitted through the bites of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The spread of infections which occur in urban and sub-urban areas causes endemic cases in 102 countries. The main indicator for controlling the endemic level is the basic reproductive ratio Ro. It is known that a stable endemic equilibrium exists when Ro >1, otherwise the endemic state disappears and stability of disease free equilibrium occurs when Ro <1. Naturally Ro depends on several parameters, with many of them are not known their values. However, the available information is only data of DHF-DSS patients in a region. Here, construction of Ro based on data of DHF-DSS patients in the region is discussed, by used of force of infection related to the dynamical model governing the interaction between susceptible human, infected human, recovered human, susceptible mosquito, and infected mosquito. Estimation force of infection can be obtained from the initial slope of the linear growth on the plot of the daily cases against the cumulative cases. This method has been successfully applied to estimate the value of the basic reproduction ratio in Bandung to observe the occurrence of the endemic. Simulation is done with the sample data of medical record in Bandung hospital during 2004-2008 periods. Estimation of the ratio between vector and human population is also shown.