RISK ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECASTS FOR TOLL ROAD INVESTMENT IN INDONESIA (Study Case : Terbanggi Besar-Bakauheni Path Tegineneng-Babatan Toll Road)

• Main Author: Indra Dharmawan (NIM : 25006014) , Weka
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/11583
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Toll Road infrastructure project investment is associated with risk and uncertainty. This is because, they require high initial cost, sunk character, uncertain revenue streams (there are no guaranteed sales), which are often low in the early years and also return of investment (cost recovery) among 25 until 35 years. The significant risk of Toll Road investment is traffic risk what will affect at revenue streams later. Forecasting of traffic volume use deterministic analyze model only can yield one output value. While how assure value result of the output not yet can depict risk and uncertainty traffic volume which in fact, this matter of course admit of to be disputed. Output of risk and uncertainty analysis ought to earn to show all possibility of result to be obtained in the form of probability distribution and non single value which is its information very limited.<p>Risk analysis with model of stochastic using simulation of Monte Carlo, have applied in assessment of eligibility from the investments. Simulation of Monte Carlo represent the way of which is assumed enough precisely to do assimilation to various uncertainty variables productively form probability distribution of a problem. This model applied at Toll Road feasibility study of Terbanggi Besar-Bakauheni path Tegineneng-Babatan (2006). Simulation model of stochastic only done at phase trip generation and also predicts revenue of Toll Road. Growth rate of population and growth rate of PDRB at every internal zone of study region considered to be independent variables which have the character of random or uncertainty of simulation model of stochastic predicts trip generation. From the simulation obtained eleven value possibility of origin destination matrix of each projection year to value of percentile (0%, 10%, 20% s.d 100%) used to phase trip assignment. Analysis of trip assignment is obtained eleven value possibility of traffic volume (LHR) in each path of Toll Road and each projection year, considered to be independent variables which have the character of random or uncertainty of Toll Road revenue forecast model simulation.<p>The Result of stochastic simulation analyze risk and uncertainty of Toll Road traffic volume forecast is obtained ratio interval is 12% < ratio value <32% with probability 90%. While result of simulation analyze risk and uncertainty of revenue in the early Toll Road opened (year 2012) is obtained possibility of total revenue of minimum is Rp. 40.380,000.000,00, total revenue of moderate (mean) is Rp. 72.041.000.000,00 and Total revenue of maximum is Rp. 106.475.000,00. Applying of this model can give interval anticipation picture of forecast result of traffic volume model with certain confidence level and also given values concerning minimum possibilities, moderating and maximum from total revenue of Toll Road in each projection year. So that can assist to the authorities or the private sector to conduct decision making scientifically and systematically. <br />