Risk Analysis of Old Control System Disturbance for Determining Power Plant Control System Retrofit Policy Alternative Using Monte Carlo Simulation (Case Study of Paiton Power Plant)

• Main Author: DARMA NUGROHO (NIM 23207337), ANDRIE
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/11811
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The reliability of the control system devices in a power plant could decrease by ageing. Technological advances led to manufacturers of electronic devices making up the digital control system to stop the production of long-tech electronic devices. As a result there was scarcity of spare parts market. Shortages were triggered companies to perform control systems retrofit. This final project aims to develop a risk analysis of the old control system disorder that can be used to help the selection of control systems retrofit alternative using monte carlo simulation model. Simulation model is built by determining the probability distribution function of random event variables like repair time duration, the amount of lost production capacity and repair cost for control systems failure. The best alternative is selected from risk analysis result for each power plant in UP Paiton and economic life time worth for the new system is predicted by calculating the equivalent uniform annual worth for a period of 20 years. The risk analysis result showed that the most influential uncertain variables in the potential loss of revenue calculations is the duration of DCS and control system repair time that is 62.9% and 84.5% at the power plant unit 1 respectively, while for the power plant unit 2 is for 57% and 62.1% respectively. Power Plant's control system retrofit alternative that should be selected for unit 1 is a total control system retrofit that will reduce the risk of revenue losses of Rp. 14,702,310,180 with an estimated economic life time worth for 16 years and control systems retrofit alternative should be selected for the power plant unit 2 is a DCS retrofit that will reduce the risk of revenue losses of Rp. 406,271,955 with economic life time worth for nine years.