APPLICATION VaR ANALYSIS on FERTILIZER FACTORY DEVELOPMENT PROJECT FINANCING (CASE STUDY PT. PUPUK KUJANG)

• Main Author: KURNIADI HALIM (NIM : 29108006/X-39); Pembimbing : Erman Sumirat, SE, Ak, M.Buss (Finance), DIDI
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/15392
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Fertilizer is one of the inputs that determine the quality of agricultural products, horticulture and fisheries. Availability of fertilizers to the farmers' level is one government program to maintain food security of Indonesia. PT. Pupuk Kujang is one of five <br /> <br /> <br /> government owned fertilizer manufacturer that serves the location of West Java, Banten, Jakarta and part of Central Java. Increasing need of subsidized fertilizer and also many other factories have older Urea Factory is the background for revitalization several fertilizer plants in Indonesia, including Kujang 1A in PT. Pupuk Kujang. However, development plans that have been <br /> <br /> <br /> designed since 2007, has not been able to realized by the company. Guarantee the supply of gas as a raw material is the resistance for company to get a loan. LNG is a solution to overcome this problem. Government planning to build LNG receiving station in Java Island to distributed gas to all industry in Java island make company can continued this project and get the loan <br /> <br /> <br /> for financing this project. To build Kujang 1C company needs capital for IDR. 6.4 quintillion(Trilyun) and most likely this loan funds obtained from abroad with government loans to government properties which then in subloan it to PT. Kujang fertilizer such as the Indonesian government had ever done when getting a loan from the Japanese government to build Kujang 1B. Loans from foreign governments must be in the form of Currency which shall be returned by the Foreign Currencies has the risk of changes in exchange rates may cause losses for the company. Losses arising from foreign exchange company has experienced in the year2008. Analisisi VaR to assess the potential losses due to foreign exchange is considered important so that companies can know the size of potential losses and advance prevention efforts. VaR analysis carried out on three foreign exchange from the three countries that are considered most have the opportunity to provide a loan of IDR. 6.4 quintillion for the development of Kujang 1C. In the VaR measurement there are three methods of parametric (variancecovariance), Historical Simulations, Monte Carlo Simulations. Of the three models were chosen method of parametric (variance-covariance) using econometric models ARCH GARCH to know the standard deviation of the data that has Heteroskedastic conditions. Of the three analyzed Currency note that CNY has the smallest VaR value. Furthermore, also a <br /> <br /> <br /> Foreign Currency CNY forecast future movements will be weakened.