MODELING THE SPREAD OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES AFTER FLOOD IN SOUTH BANDUNG REGENCY, INDONESIA

• Main Author: NURAENI (29009010) ; pembimbing : Prof. Takeshi Arai & Dr. Ir. Utomo Sarjono Putro, M.En, SHIMADITYA
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/17220
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

South Bandung regency, especially Baleendah and Dayeuhkolot subdistrict, experiencing flood frequently since there was land conversion for urban development. In the end of January 2010, water from Citarum river inundate 4474 houses in South Bandung and force more than ten thousand people to evacuate. Noted as the worst flood for the last two decaded, the people in South Bandung have to stay in the evacuation site almost three months and increasing the risk of infectious diseases such as diarrhea and acute-respiratory infection (ARI) to emerge. There were 758 people get diarrhea and 3681 get ARI recorded. With difficulties on accessing clean water and highly exposed on contaminated water, and crowding in the evacuation site can trigger both diseases to an outbreak. The solution on the flood still need 2 years more on operation even if the normalization started immediately. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> In order to prevent such situation in the future year, a Decision Support System is constructed using System Dynamics as a tool. A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis is also used in measuring the effectiveness of several intervention with monetary budget. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> The simulation result on the dynamics of ARI disease using SD shows similar pattern,as s-shaped growth. While the diarrhea disease shows different dynamics pattern between simulation and real data. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> With 8% allocation on health budget from regional budget, the optimum solution to minimixe the number of infected/ sick refugees by diarrhea is through promoting self-medication, and through promoting masker usage for ARI.