THE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT FOR AGRO CLIMATE SUITABILITY AND PRODUCTIVITY FOR RICE IN WEST NUSA TENGGARA PROVINCE (PERIOD 2040-2069 AND 2070-2099)

• Main Author: RIPALDI (NIM : 22411312); pembinbing:Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.: Dr. Edvin Aldrian, APU., ADI
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/17783
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Global climate change affects some development sectors including agriculture. West Nusa Tenggara Province, as one of main rice producer in Indonesia is vulnerable to the climate change. In order that, climate change analysis is needed for its adaptation and mitigation. This analysis employed some downscaling climate parameters such as rainfall and temperature using CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) technique with 14 km resolution and A2 scenario of IPCC. The periods for prediction will be divided into two; near future (2040 – 2069) and future (2070 – 2099) relative to baseline period (1971-2000). Furthermore, impacts of climate change to agro-climate suitability and rice productivity in those periods will be detected based on FAO (Food Agricultural Organization) method. <br /> <br /> <br /> Based on two models; ECHAM5_MPI and MK3.5, the projections show that temperature in NTB increase about 1.1 – 1.7oC in the period of ‘near future’ while it shows higher increasing in the period of ‘future’ (2.6 – 3.7oC). In addition, the rainfall changes are varies. For the near future period, there is 30% decreasing and 10% increasing of rainfall. Meanwhile, for the future period, there is 40% decreasing and 20% increasing of rainfall. Furthermore, for the near future period, agro-climate suitability changes for rice crop decreases from moderate suitable (S2) to marginal suitable (S3) over some regions such as West Lombok, South Lombok, Central Sumbawa and East Sumbawa. For the future period, the projection shows that the agro-climate suitability changes for rice crop more decrease from S2 to S3, then at the same time non suitable area (N) also expand over some areas such of in the Central and South of Lombok also in the West and North of Sumbawa. Moreover, the rice productivity in the near future period is projected decline (7-10) % and more decline (12-15)% in the future period.