#TITLE_ALTERNATIVE#

• Main Author: YULIHASTIN ( NIM : 22412010 ); Pembimbing : Dr. Nurjanna Joko Trilaksono, ERMA
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/18414
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Influence of Cross-Equatorial Northerly Surge (CENS) to the formation of precipitation in Jakarta and surrounding areas in case of flooding in Jakarta January 17, 2013 investigated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data, Multi-Functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT), Wind Satellite (WindSAT), reanalysis data of National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) to strengthen the regional scale analysis and confirm of model results. We also simulated Numerical Weather Prediction models of non-hydrostatic Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO), DWD-German, with a resolution of 7 km in a limited area. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> The results showed that moderate-intensity cold surge occurs coincide with transition phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) from strong to suppress, during flood events period (14-19 January). A cold surge activity from moderate to strong of intensity occurred from 11 to 19 January, 2013. The cold surge which is propagated through the South Cina Sea to the Southern Hemisphere across the equator extends to form CENS evidenced across West Java to the Indian Ocean in southern West Java (8oS). The CENS which is identified by strengthening northerly winds at the surface has encouraged the spread of precipitation over Jakarta extends to the south. In addition, CENS has also stimulated development of the covergences over West Java, which were main convergences formed on the east of Jakarta and southern coast West Java (Garut). Convergence on the south coast tends to be persistent because of intrusion of wind from the south. On the other hand, research shows that convergence in regional scale has generated the convective activity and precipitation over Jakarta due to maximum of precipitation over Jakarta (100 mm/say). Based on the model simulation results, the contribution of convective rain to the total precipitation is not significant compare to the stratiform rain. This study also confirmed that the activity of the MJO that active over Indonesia Maritime Continent (IMC) simultaneously before the event, on January 6 to 11, less of effect to increase the total precipitation in Jakarta. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Compared to the case of 2007, the 2013 precipitation has smaller value because influence of the CENS is coincided with transition phase of the MJO from mature to suppress over East Pacific Ocean also formation of covergences around of IMC in regional scale over South Cina Sea, Java Sea, Indian Ocean close to the southeast of Java, Sumatera, Indian Ocean near to west of Australia, and Australia. The low pressure centers have the potential to reduce the amount of moisture transport that extends to West Java, so that precipitation over Jakarta is reaching not higher compare to the 2007 event.