ACHIEVING NATIONAL ENERGY SELF-SUFFICIENCY: AN POLICY ANALYSIS ON SUPPLY OF HIGH SPEED DIESEL USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

• Main Author: SURYA PERMANA (NIM : 24006050) ; Pembimbing : Dr. Ir. Muhammad Tasrif, M.Eng , KRISN
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/18809
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Energy self-sufficiency will be achieved if contain three main factors: (i) availability, means available in the certain amount quantitatively; (ii) acceptability which final energy consumed is fulfilled technical specification required by legitimate board; (iii) accesability that in spatial, the energy reachs all region until remote area; and (iv) affordability related to (economic) price of energy. The restructuritation of national oil and gas sector in the framework of guaranteeing efficiency and effectivity in the petroleum industry in order to optimize development process opens an opportunity to business entity to carry out petroleum business activities in the principles of fairness, healthy, and transparent. In line with GCG implementation creates efficient, transparent, and consistent with regulations petroleum market which supported by three pillars: (i) government as regulator; (ii) business entity as market player; and (iii) society as consumer of product and service. <br /> <br /> <br /> Focusing on supply of HSD for industrial sector, business entitiy suffered of significant losses caused by both decreasing MOPS price and increasing foreign exchange (Rp/US$) because imported HSD is paid using US$ meanwhile domestic sales using Rp. In reference to that condition, understanding of the structure of HSD supply and sales as well as financial structure is needed. Then, scenarios and policy options of HSD supply is developed.Simulation result showed that assuming business as usual, cash flow keep going down which means losses and will cause bankrupt as well as current ratio that indicates unhealthy financial condition of business entitiy. Further impact is no more operating wholesale business entity leading to monopoly market (only one player as representative of government obligation to supply and distribute oil fuel in Indonesia).Management strategies could be carried out are capital injection from holding company to overcome limitation of working capital, shortening time to collect acount receiveable, discount pricing to customer who pay cash in delivery, changing sales system from wholesale to retail, and converting all loan in dollar to rupiah. Petroleum reforming process shall be suppoted by government policy which reflecting GCG principles. Market mechanism failure could be sourced from monopoly and caused energy self-sufficiency is hard to achieve. Effective approach for GoI is to continue GCG implementation into positive law as well as established law enforcement.