PARAMETER ESTIMATION AR AND ARMA TIME SERIES MODEL BY GAUSS-NEWTON METHOD AND GENETIC ALGORITHM. CASE STUDY: WATER DISCHARGE SAGULING RESERVOIR - WEST JAVA
The forecasting of hydrological variable, such as water discharge, has important role in planning and managing the water resources. A reservoir of water discharges that are recorded based on time will form a time series observations. This nal project conducts two time series modeling methods to t...
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| Format: | Final Project |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/19308 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | The forecasting of hydrological variable, such as water discharge, has important
role in planning and managing the water resources. A reservoir of water discharges
that are recorded based on time will form a time series observations. This nal
project conducts two time series modeling methods to the water discharge data of
Saguling, West Java. Those methods are the Box-Jenkins method and numerical
methods method. The numerical methods consist of the genetic algorithm and
the Gauss-Newton. Both of methods showed that the AR(1) and ARMA(1,1)
are the best models. Furthermore, by using AR(1) and ARMA(1,1) stationary
models, the next few months water discharge can be forecasted. |
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