#TITLE_ALTERNATIVE#

• Main Author: SATYAWARDHANA (NIM : 22412014); Pembimbing : Dr.rer.nat. Armi Susandi, MT., HARIES
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/20156
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Research on the season onset using criteria of the BMKG (Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency) which using 10-day rainfall data so-called dasarian, in Indonesia has been widely done, but it still has limitations in the analysis period, the spatial resolution is low and still not be able to generate for future projections. The use of climate models is the <br /> <br /> answer to overcome all these limitations. This study uses CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) for the downscaling of global climate model data as an overview of the forecast period and the NCEP reanalysis of data / NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research) used as a picture of the current state (baseline). Study area in this research is Java Island which has the boundary 5.5&#730; – 11.5&#730;N and 105&#730; – 115&#730;E. This research using two period, they are: 1991 - 2010 (20 years), which is <br /> <br /> the current state and 2011 – 2030 which is a projection of the future. The onset of the season in this study was using the BMKG criteria. The results of this study indicate that in the baseline period, most regions have the onset of dry season (AMK) occur in dasarian 13 – 19, <br /> <br /> while in the projection is largely dominated by the AMK that occurred in dasarian 12 – 17. The onset of rainy season (AMH) for baseline condition show that in the western and central Java dominant occur in dasarian 27 – 32, while the eastern part occur in dasarian 29 – 35. <br /> <br /> Projection using IPCC A2 scenario concludes that changes of AMK that occur in most parts of Java is come earlier, whereas AMH tends to retreat or come slower than the baseline. In other words, Java is projected to have a longer dry season, and the rainy season is shorter <br /> <br /> than the current conditions. A longer dry season will lead to drought in large parts of Java and it is aggravated by decreasing of rainfall in the dry season.