ANALYZING IMPACT OF LOWERING GAS PRICE POLICY: A SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF INDONESIA GAS INDUSTRY

• Main Author: MAHARDIKA (NIM 29115514), ANDIKA
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/21043
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Indonesia natural gas industry having negative growth from 2014 until now. Natural <br /> <br /> gas industry economic variables showing negative trend. Low oil price influencing the <br /> <br /> whole fossil based business. Several business issues were identified such as: decreases <br /> <br /> level of investment, reducing proven gas reserve, reducing man power resource, etc. <br /> <br /> Since natural gas industry is complex system, author using system dynamic frame work <br /> <br /> to create business solution. There are 4 (four) approaching steps at system dynamics: <br /> <br /> feedback approach (causal loop), aggregate approach (stock and flow diagram), <br /> <br /> simulation approach (modelling) and small simulation approach. This final project will <br /> <br /> examine the system using 3(three) approach: feedback, aggregate and simulation. <br /> <br /> However, most history data of industry are confidential. Aggregate approach and <br /> <br /> simulation approach need to simplify to one consumption sector such as: electricity. <br /> <br /> Simulation approach utilizing Vensim Sofware with 4 (four) scenario to identified <br /> <br /> industry behavior regarding government policy. Author choosing whole sale gas cap <br /> <br /> policy where just recently implemented. <br /> <br /> This final project objective is to analyze impact of lowering gas price and predict the <br /> <br /> behavior of natural gas industry by applying mathematical model to represent existing <br /> <br /> behavior.