THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO DETERMINE SALES SECTOR IN PT PUPUK KALIMANTAN TIMUR

• Main Author: PURNAMA - 29115080, ANDY
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/21083
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

This research is conducted at PT. Pupuk Kalimantan Timur (Pupuk Kaltim) with an objective of proposing response and action plan based on sales sectors that contribute to the expected profit level with the lowest risk. There are 9 (nine) sales sectors of its product lines as the research objects. They are Subsidized Urea or Urea PSO , Subsidized NPK or NPK PSO, Organic, Non-subsidized Domestic Urea or Comercial Urea, Non-subsidized Domestic NPK or Comercial NPK, Industrial Urea, Industrial Ammonia, Urea Exports, and Ammonia Exports. Through the historical data, each sector has different price and moves dynamically from time to time according to the market price. Monte Carlo method will be used as the framework to simulate historical data for each sector with revenues, <br /> <br /> cost of goods sold, selling price, production cost as the variable from January 2013 to December 2015. <br /> <br /> From the analysis, it can be concluded that the GPM with a yield rate of more than 30 percent varies the level of likelihood in each sector. Starting from the lowest to the highest likelihood sector are Comercial NPK, Industrial Urea, Comercial Urea, Export Urea, NPK PSO, Urea PSO, Organic, Export Ammonia, Industrial Ammonia. In terms of exposure to sales achievement, the sector with the lowest to the highest exposuresector among others Organic, Comercial NPK, NPK PSO, Industrial Urea, Comercial Urea, Urea PSO, Industrial Ammonia, Export Urea, Export Ammonia. <br /> <br /> The proposed response and action plan for each sector is based on the opportunity / risk matrix with the following results. Response and action plan for Export Amonia and Industrial Ammonia is by exploit opportunity. Response and action plan for Comercial NPK, NPK PSO and Industrial Urea is by accept opportunity. Response and action plan for Export Urea is by share opportunity. Response and action plan for Comercial Urea is by accept opportunity or share opportunity. Response and action plan for Urea PSO is by accept opportunity or enhance opportunity or exploit opportunity. <br /> <br /> Response and action planfor Organic sector is by accept opportunity or enhance opportunity. Pupuk Kaltim needs to develop a risk management system with a quantitative approach to manage its product line. Quantitative approach is a very applicable and appropriately used for risk with the recorded, or measurable causal factors. This approach can improve the reliability of information and finally the information can help the decision-making process.