NATIONAL ROADS MANAGEMENT USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL (CASE STUDY: NATIONAL ROADS IN BANTEN PROVINCE )

• 主要作者: NUGROHO, ANTON
• 格式: Theses
• 語言: Indonesia
• 主題: Teknik jalan kereta api dan jalan raya
• 在線閱讀: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/21166

Pavement performance modeling is required in road maintenance planning to <br /> <br /> <br /> determine the type of treatment to be performed in the future. The difficulty often <br /> <br /> <br /> faced by road managers is that it is not easy to predict pavement conditions and <br /> <br /> <br /> budgets that may not be available at the end of each planning year. This study <br /> <br /> <br /> discuss the approach of Markov Chain model to predict pavement conditions by <br /> <br /> <br /> using IRI (International Roughness Index) value. To illustrate budgets limitation, <br /> <br /> <br /> budget allocation scenario applied to see the impact on road performance during <br /> <br /> <br /> the year of analysis. Determination of road maintenance priority due to limitation <br /> <br /> <br /> of budget allocation is done by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. <br /> <br /> <br /> The Markov Chain model modeled the initial condition of the pavement as the <br /> <br /> <br /> initial distribution of pavement conditions and the probability of future road <br /> <br /> <br /> condition changes obtained from the data of road condition changes in previous <br /> <br /> <br /> years as the Transitional Probability Matrix (TPM). 4 types of maintenance <br /> <br /> <br /> (Routine, Periodical, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction) that can be selected for <br /> <br /> <br /> road maintenance is based on the percentage of road damage conditions. AHP is <br /> <br /> <br /> used to determine the order of importance of the annual road maintenance program <br /> <br /> <br /> plan over the next 10 years with various budgeting scenarios. 3 maintenance budget <br /> <br /> <br /> scenario were used in this study. <br /> <br /> <br /> This study provides results: 1. The markov chain model for road maintenance <br /> <br /> <br /> management shows a fairly good maintenance pattern, where road maintenance in <br /> <br /> <br /> the form of repairing action is done in the 2-3 year range. 2. The use of AHP is <br /> <br /> <br /> particularly suited in determines priority of road segments in the annual program <br /> <br /> <br /> planning for 10 years. 3. From the budgeting scenario, it is found that the smaller <br /> <br /> <br /> the budget provided for road maintenance will result in increased amount of funds <br /> <br /> <br /> needed to maintain road life cycle than when provided funds in accordance with <br /> <br /> <br /> their needs.