SCENARIO PLANNING DEVELOPMENT FOR BPRS AMANAH UMMAH

• Main Author: RIZALI SYARIEF (NIM 29115509), HANIFA
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/22347
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

BPRS Amanah Ummah, a prominent Islamic rural bank in West Bogor has been developing <br /> <br /> <br /> since 1992 and became the best Islamic rural bank in 2015 with total asset more than 100 billion <br /> <br /> <br /> rupiah. Amanah Ummah intends to expand business to other region beside West Bogor. <br /> <br /> <br /> However, Islamic bank’s business in 2016 is in worst state in 5 years. The financing growth of <br /> <br /> <br /> Islamic bank in 2016 was considered low and it is not as high as expected. Amanah Ummah <br /> <br /> <br /> faces business uncertainty that comes from many external factors. Although financial industry <br /> <br /> <br /> has high barrier due to high regulation, the emergence of non-bank financial institutions in <br /> <br /> <br /> Indonesia can be a threat for BPRS Amanah Ummah in developing their business. Society’s <br /> <br /> <br /> acceptance towards Islamic bank and knowledge on banking also has effect on Islamic bank’s <br /> <br /> <br /> business. Other factors such as government policy, economic climate and customers’ behavior <br /> <br /> <br /> are other uncertainties to face. <br /> <br /> <br /> This final project is intended to develop a set of business strategy business scenario of BPRS <br /> <br /> <br /> Amanah Ummah that formed by uncertainties using scenario planning method thus the company <br /> <br /> <br /> can be able to response and adapt quickly with the future changes. Semi-structured interviews <br /> <br /> <br /> were conducted with directors and head of division to extract information and data. Other data <br /> <br /> <br /> collection methods are through industry report, literature review, books, journals, media scanning <br /> <br /> <br /> and internet browsing. Some important insights are also collected from informal daily <br /> <br /> <br /> conversation. <br /> <br /> <br /> Several driving forces are identified through data analysis which then further analyzed using a <br /> <br /> <br /> degree of uncertainty and level of impact matrix to derive two critical uncertainties. Two critical <br /> <br /> <br /> uncertainties derived are society’s acceptance of Islamic banking and economic climate, which <br /> <br /> <br /> form four plausible scenarios, namely Wonderwall, Wallflower, Push the Wall, and Brick Wall. <br /> <br /> <br /> After developing narrative for each scenario, implications on the company and options that can <br /> <br /> <br /> be chosen must be developed under each scenario. In addition, early warning signals must be set <br /> <br /> <br /> to serve as guidance so the managers can foresee to what possible scenarios the current situation <br /> <br /> <br /> is heading.