MODELING EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE, INTEREST RATE AND CRUDE OIL PRICES ON INFLATION IN INDONESIA BY USING LINEAR MODELS GENERALIZED

• Main Author: DARLIA (NIM : 20814014) , NELVIKA
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/23454
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The rate of increase in the inflation rate is influenced by various factors, both directly and psychologically to encourage the trend of the inflation rate. In this thesis, will be discussed some of the factors that will trigger inflation rate in Indonesia, such as the exchange rate, interest rates and rising oil price by using a model of Generalized Linear Model (GLM) because the response variable that are not normal distribution. Response variable in GLM is assumed to have a distribution that is included in the distribution of exponential family. Distribution that is included exponential family distribution such as is Normal, Poisson, Exponential and Gamma distribution, so the method that will be used in this thesis is Generalized Linear Models. This method is used because the data normality assumption is not fullfilled. Modelling use by two methods, ie involving outliers and without otuliers. For each of these methods are used Gamma and Inverse Gaussian distribution respectively. It is found that the modeljng with outliers, variable crude oil price (ICP) that most affect inflation, while for processing without outliers provides variable interest rates that most influence.