DETERMINING THE APPROPRIATE DEMAND FORECASTING USING TIME SERIES METHOD AT PT RICKY MUSI WIJAYA PALEMBANG

• Main Author: Yunishafira (19015046), Affiya
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/25074
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

PT Ricky Musi Wijaya (RMW) is a subsidiary company which responsible to distribute <br /> <br /> the clothing line product of PT Ricky Putra Globalindo Tbk. This company could be <br /> <br /> categorized as merchandising business because they only sell finish products of parent <br /> <br /> company. The method that used by RMW to predict future demand is only based on the <br /> <br /> judgment of previous sales. This causes the company to have a high trade debt to the parent <br /> <br /> company. To maintain the sustainability of the company, this can be prevented by <br /> <br /> improving the method of forecasting their demand. <br /> <br /> This research will be analyzed using time series analysis method including moving average, <br /> <br /> simple exponential smoothing, holt's model and winter's model. Due to the characteristic of <br /> <br /> their forecast errors are not symmetric distribution, researcher used Mean Absolute Deviation <br /> <br /> (MAD) and Tracking Signal (TS) to calculate the error and to compare the model in terms of <br /> <br /> their forecast performance and to make sure if the proposed demand forecasting method is still <br /> <br /> appropriate. <br /> <br /> The calculation concluded that simple moving average is the best method. To utilize the <br /> <br /> methods provided in this study, director of RMW required to record the historical sales data <br /> <br /> systematically, measure the forecast error properly, use the proposed method in the right time <br /> <br /> period, and commit to learn the proposed demand forecasting method.