TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS AND STOCK PRICE FORECASTING USING ADAPTIVE NEURO FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM METHOD. CASE STUDY: PT. ANTAM TBK

• Main Author: INTAN YUSTISIA RAHMALINA (NIM : 22115002), ANNISA
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/25666
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Every company should be able to obtain sufficient financial resources to be used in the financing <br /> <br /> business. Mining operations require substantial capital and high technology. On the other hand, <br /> <br /> mining concessions have high risks. Amid the economic environment is growing very fast, one <br /> <br /> way to get the source of funds is through capital markets or stocks. The stock price may also be a <br /> <br /> reflection of the company's performance because psychologically investors would prefer to invest <br /> <br /> at a more promising as reflected in the good performance of the company. This research is <br /> <br /> conducted in secondary market related to the financial of the company in the future to conduct <br /> <br /> IPO. <br /> <br /> This study used two analysis to analyze stocks, namely technical and fundamental analysis. <br /> <br /> Technical analysis is an analysis that provides information about when the purchase of shares by <br /> <br /> looking at the trend charts and influenced by several factors: the stock exchange, the state of capital <br /> <br /> markets, the volume of transactions, share price development over time and capital gain / loss. <br /> <br /> While fundamental analysis is divided into two, namely internal fundamental analysis that includes <br /> <br /> the company's performance and general economic conditions. Both of these analyzes are needed <br /> <br /> to perform the next stage of stock price determination in the future. Stock prices have random and <br /> <br /> complex characteristics, because of these characteristics, ordinary statistical techniques become <br /> <br /> irrelevant, so can not be used for forecasting. One tool that can be done to forecast stock prices is <br /> <br /> Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System <br /> <br /> (ANFIS) has a very good performance in predictive statistical nature and can make the process to <br /> <br /> get the optimal prediction. <br /> <br /> Trend of ANTM.JK stock trend from January 2007 to March 2017 is decreasing. Higher low point <br /> <br /> in January 2017 was unbelievably farther than a point lower high at the time of January 2008. <br /> <br /> From January 2010 to January 2016 can be seen there is no significant trend up and down that <br /> <br /> could be the sale or purchase of momentum that will generate big profits for investors. Technical <br /> <br /> analysis conducted by the term moving average is 200. And to see short-term stock movements <br /> <br /> using MADC 150: 60 which will produce a common ground on March 15, 2017, which should <br /> <br /> take a stand to sell or buy shares. <br /> <br /> Financial ratio is directly proportional to the volume and price of shares in circulation, there is a <br /> <br /> decrease in trend in the year 2009 to 2017. Sales volume also decreased due to the financial <br /> <br /> condition of PT. ANTAM TBK is also in declining condition <br /> <br /> From the estimation using ANFIS found that the tendency of stock market trends ANTM.JK until <br /> <br /> the 1st quarter of 2020 decreased PT. ANTAM TBK should increases performance so that the <br /> <br /> value of shares also increases. Likewise earning per share is very influential on stock prices. We <br /> <br /> recommend an evaluation of the financial ratios.of PT. ANTAM TBK