DESIGN OF PROJECT COST RISK ASSESMENT IN BUSINESS UNIT OF PT LEN INDUSTRI USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

• Main Author: ZAHRA MAUDYNA NIM 13414058 , AZZALITA
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/26003
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

PT LEN Industri (Persero) is a project-based state-owned company that has implemented risk management. Project is the main driver of this business. At present, the risk assessment process is only carried out qualitatively so it does not yet represent real conditions and the results are considered to have a low level of accuracy. Therefore, PT LEN realizes that the implementation of this risk assessment needs to be improved especially for the risk of project costs of business units in PT LEN, because the information generated from this process is very influential on the decisions made by the company. The increase was carried out by designing a project cost risk assessment in the PT LEN business unit, so that the risk assessment process can be carried out quantitatively. <br /> <br /> The design of project cost risk assessment was built using a decision support system (DSS) approach and based on Monte Carlo simulation to produce an appropriate design and can carry out the process of assessing project risks quantitatively as expected. The system design was built using the help of Microsoft Excel software, Visual Basic for Application, and @Risk. <br /> <br /> Based on the research, the risk assessment process with Monte Carlo Simulation is carried out using a model built on the actual system. The model is produced with the help of a fault tree and risk factor model and consists of a number of events and cost attributes that interact and influence the increase in project costs. The magnitude of the increase in total project costs is influenced by the estimated probability value and the impact of the event which is probabilistic. With the model and probability-impact estimation of the project risk events, the simulation was carried out using a random number of 10,000 iterations until finally the user got a quantified output with a specific unit in the form of a cumulative distribution function and tornado diagram. With the SPK approach, interaction between users and this system is built into the system design according to the needs in the risk assessment process. <br /> <br /> The design implementation of the monitoring system maintenance project generates a list of project risks which consists of 31 risks from the 10 identified risks that are included by user. In addition, information was also obtained that 100% of the projects would not increase by more than Rp 2.482.000.000 and in this project the occurrence of "additional work" had the greatest influence on the increase in total project costs, starting from Rp 923.616.316 to Rp 1.571.000.000.