STOCK VALUATION OF PT ASTRA AGRO LESTARI, TBK; IMPACT OF CPO PRICE VOLATILITY

• Main Author: Chrissteven, Denies
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/26480
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

PT Astra Agro Lestari, Tbk (AALI) is one of Indonesian palm oil company and is listed company in IDX. Performance of AALI’s stock price is very influenced by CPO price. It is proved by last research of Setyo, T.W. in 2005. <br /> <br /> Based on AALI’s historical data from 2014 to 2017, average growth of AALI’s stock price declined -12% but their average growth of revenue still increased with 10%. If AALI’s sales is compared by average CPO price of AALI’s, average CPO price of AALI has average growth with 4% from 2014 to 2017. Average sales CPO price of AALI in 2017 (Rp 8,271,-/kg) is almost close in 2014( Rp 8,282,-/kg). From its issues, intrinsic value of AALI’s stock price must be calculated again based on internal and external environment of AALI in palm oil industry. Root cause analysis is done to know others factor that impact AALI’s stock valuation. In absolute valuation model will show fair value of AALI stock price at the end of 2017. Valuation model is calculated by DCF method.And then, sensitivity analysis is done on AALI’s intrinsic value. <br /> <br /> After analyzed and calculated intrinsic value of AALI’s stock price with absolute valuation model, AALI’s stock price was Rp 15.166,- per share and undervalued in the end of 2017. Based on CFA threshold, AALI’s stock price had potential upside with 15.33% so investor should buy AALI’ stock price in the end of 2017. <br />