BEHAVIOR MODEL OF EARTHQUAKES USING POINT PROCESS ANALYSIS-POLAR COORDINATES (CASE STUDY: MOLLUCA REGION AND ITS SURROUNDING)

• Main Author: JUNUS WATTIMANELA , HENRY
• Format: Dissertations
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/27825
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

One of the natural phenomena that the event is random and has a certain distribution is an earthquake event. Nowadays some research has been developing about earthquake, especially related to the location of the earthquake. The research is a preliminary step in efforts to minimize the number of human victims and other resources in earthquake prone areas. Methods that can be developed are of course probabilistic. The probabilistic models commonly developed in the last five years such as: the method of the earthquake arrival rate, the process of the marked point, and the point process of the earthquake. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> This research develops and applies stochastic point process with polar coordinate approach. The location used as the observation area is the Molucca region and its surroundings. Central point to the observation area is Tobelo City which is the Capital of North Halmahera Regency. Tobelo City is in the Molucca Sea Collision Zone, in addition to being one of the development zones established in the preparation of the Urban Land Use Plan of North Halmahera Regency of North Molucca Province. The data used are earthquake events with depth ?? 50 km and magnitude > 5 SR in Molucca Region and its surrounding for the period of 1968-2008 which have been corrected. The parameter index used is the location of an earthquake at a certain distance and angle with the space state of the number of occurrences of earthquakes. The regional partitioning process uses a polar coordinate approach with varying distances and fixed angles. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Observations are reviewed based on quadrants and octants in order to be more specific and meticulous in relation to the location of earthquakes and administrative territory. The results show that in certain quadrants or octants have more earthquake events with a certain magnitude and depth when compared with other quadrants or octants in the observation area. Then the estimated distance of the location of the earthquake to the Tobelo City and also the minimum distance between the earthquake locations in a sequence in an area of observation by using the Tobelo City as a starting point. The result is a minimum distance of 1968 distributed lognormal while the 1973 distributed Weibull. Then the minimum distance of the earthquake of 1983, 2004 and 2006 distributed gamma. Estimation of Weibull, lognormal and gamma distribution parameters using the maximum likelihood estimation method. In this study also conducted an assessment of the intensity and opportunities of the earthquake by using the Tobelo City as a central point. The assessment of intensity based on a certain distance from the Tobelo City with consideration of the <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> impact felt by the earthquake. Earthquake intensity assessment is applied to area G with radius as far as 333.966 km. The process of assessing the intensity using the partition method approach with varying distance and fixed angle; and the Gaussian bivariate kernel estimation density approximation. The result of the intensity assessment based on distance shows that getting to the center of Tobelo City is rarely an earthquake and vice versa further from Tobelo City, the more frequent the earthquake occurs. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Assessment of seismic probability is done to the observation area of Molucca and its surroundings by applying the Gaussian bivariate kernel density estimation approach. Assessment of seismic opportunities in a particular area of the observation area based on contours obtained using software of SAS 9.2. Assessment of opportunities is also made to the location of the first nearest earthquake of any earthquake location against the Tobelo City. The results show that the probability of an earthquake in some parts of the Molucca Region and its surroundings is greater when compared to other the regions. Various processes are preceded by forming models that can be applied to earthquake data. Application models on earthquake data using the program to get accurate assessment results. The program is created using python 3.6 and R 3.4.1 programming language.