TIME SERIES DEMAND FORECASTING AND INVENTORY MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS OF TUNA TOFU PRODUCT AT NIKMAT LESTARI COMPANY

• Main Author: Cahya Pertiwi (19015053), Kartika
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/28395
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Logistics help the industry to maintain a continuous supply across various locations with different suppliers and distributors, both the durable and nondurable goods. Looking to food industry, it uses logistics for acquisition of resources, storage, and movement of goods (PRNewswire, 2015). But, the fundamental problem which have to be tackled in the food industry is possible expiration of the goods (Charles, 2017). Most foods are ‘safe to eat’ even though after the expiration date passed. Once the goods expire, it is not possible to distribute it further articles in the logistics chain, it is the loss for the company. Regarding to that, this research solely would focus on determining demand forecasting method for the goods and managing their inventory to prevent any further losses for the company. <br /> <br /> One of the tuna tofu producer that still exist is Nikmat Lestari Company. Nikmat Lestari Company established in 2011. Their business focused on anything that related to tuna fish processed product such as tuna tofu, otak-otak, and tuna siomai. Nikmat Lestari Company has distributed their product mainly to Jakarta. Since the company has no demand forecast system yet, they cannot determine the appropriate amount of inventory that they should have to face the upcoming demand. In order to tackle the issue, determining the appropriate forecast demand method and inventory management for the company is need to be conducted, for the purpose of helping the company manage their inventory efficiently. <br /> <br /> The research will be conducted in several ways. First, do the preliminary study. Second, problem identification. Then, theoretical foundation that follows with data collection. After that, data processing and analysis will be needed. Finally, researcher will come up with conclusion and also recommendations for the company. <br /> <br /> According to the data analysis result, the most suitable demand forecasting method for Nikmat Lestari Company is using Winter’s method because it has the lowest number of error measurement compared to other three method, which are Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, and Holt’s Model. Using demand forecast result data using Winter’s method as reference for determining the most suitable inventory management for the company, it shows that using Lot-for-lot method are more suitable to the company instead of using Economic Order Quantity method because it has lower inventory cost compared to EOQ method. <br /> <br /> Based on the research’s outcome, it would be best if company applies Winter’s model as their new demand forecasting method, since Nikmat Lestari Company has no demand forecasting practices from before. Also, further research needed to be done in order to overcome the limitation in this research such as expanding research scope or in other business area, analyzing the impact of demand forecasting from different perspective and finding a better replacement of demand forecasting method and inventory management system.