QUANTITATIVE FLOOD RISK PROJECTION IN JAVA ISLAND

• Main Author: NAFISHOH (NIM: 25116002), QORIATUN
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/30063
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

<p align="justify"> Indonesia is a country that has highly susceptibility of flood disaster. This disaster can cause both victim and damage. Therefore, risk assessment is very needed to decrease the impacts of disaster. This study aims to assess the quantitative flood risk in Java Island and project the risk until 2030 based on land change scenarios. Quantitative risk is assessed by integrating hazard, vulnerability, and element at risk components through Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The hazard used is flood depth. Vulnerability is represented by the vulnerability curve that relate the depth value and the probability of damage degree. While the elements at risk include house building, agriculture land, and population. Risk is projection using the land change scenarios that modeled through approaches from the relationship between the availability of foodstuff energy and the number of populations. <br /> <br /> During the 2014-2030 time period, about 50% of house buildings and 71% of agriculture land are exposed to damage risk. The number of death increase about 5-10%. Risk of economic loss also tends to rise. The estimated economic loss of house building reach Rp 447.630 billion in 2014 until Rp 843.976 billion in 2030. Unorganized house has greater economic loss than an organized house. The estimated economic loss of agriculture land reach Rp 33.903 billion in 2014 until Rp 56.603 billion in 2030. <p align="justify">