#TITLE_ALTERNATIVE#

• Main Author: JANNAH (NIM : 12911020), RAUDHATUL
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/30261
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The impacts of climate change on marine environmental are ocean acidification and coral bleaching caused by increasing of CO2 concentration and sea surface temperature (SST). This research aim to obtain future percentage of coral cover and coral bleaching event in Raja Ampat and Wakatobi from 2000 to 2100 using Coral Mortality and Belaching Output (COMBO) Model. The data used for the model is mean monthly temperature in 2000 from NOAA AVHRR, the observation data of coral cover percentage from COREMAP, minimum, optimum and maximum growth temperatures of Porites sp. from experimental research about Coral Stress due to thermal condition.This model used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s skenarios which divided into five different scenarios such as B2_2, B2_3, A1B_2, A1B_3 and A1FI_3. <br /> <br /> International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI) reported the coral mortality has occured in many areas in Indonesia including Raja Ampat and Wakatobi in 2010 and based on NOAA’s satelite stated that in Raja Ampat and Wakatobi bleaching watch condition occured in 2004 and 2002. Then the result from COMBO model tested to data from ICRI and NOAA satelite, therefore we obtained the scenarios that suit the condition in Raja Ampat which are B2_3, A1B_3, A1FI_3 and B2_2, A1B_2 for Wakatobi area. <br /> <br /> The Projection of coral percentage from 2016 to 2100 in Raja Ampat using B2_3, A1B_3 and A1FI_3 caused coral mortality in 2023, 2031 and 2049 with the coral percentage left in 2100 is 14.10% and for Wakatobi coral mortality occured in 2025, 2034 and 2055 with the coral percentage left in 2100 is 17.27%. The result that we obtained from COMBO model has a close result to Burke (2012) and Donner (2009)’s research which state that in 2030 and 2050 the mortality of coral will occure in coral triangle (Raja Ampat and Wakatobi are located in coral triangle area). <br /> <br /> The increasing of sea surface temperature and CO2 concentration caused decreasing of aragonite saturation state (&#937;arg), value of &#937;arg in Raja Ampat and Wakatobi in 2100 are 2.43 and 2.85 which caused decreasing of coral growth over time with percentage of coral cover are 14.10% and 17.27% for Raja Ampat and Wakatobi, extreemly change of sea surface temperature also caused coral bleaching which harm for coral reef and the worst could induce coral mortality.