PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL THRESHOLD FOR LANDSLIDE OCCURRENCE IN CENTRAL JAVA USING GSMAP SATELIT DATA

• Main Author: - Nim: 12813004 , SETIANINGSIH
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/30889
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

<p align="justify">Landslide is the most deadly type of disaster. Central Java is an area with high vulnerability of landslides. Determination of rainfall threshold is the common method that used to predicting the characteristics of rainfall that trigerring landslide events. The method, however, provides deterministic view that is not always suited to landslides. The probabilistic approach is considered to provide better information in assessing the rainfall threshold that trigerring landslide events. Therefore, in this study will determine probabilistic rainfall threshold that trigerring landslides in Central Java using GSMaP rain data. The lower limit of threshold curve is obtained from fitting data using power law equations. Rainfall variables that used in this study are the accumulation and duration of the rainfall which counted over a range of different rainfall durations (5, 10, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, dan 90). Then, the probability of rainfall threshold is calculated using Bayesian Method. The probability of landslide events given by rainfall events with certain accumulation and a duration is shows a small value that is in the range of values 0.001 - 0.009. The high probability over durastions tend to be given by higher accumulation and long duration. The value of probabilistic rainfall threshold in Central Java that can be used within an early warning system of landslides is 0.004. <p align="justify"> <br />