MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR ISLAMIC BANK BALANCE SHEET AND PROFIT AND LOSS FORECASTING USING DECOMPOSITION METHOD

• Main Author: PUTRI (NIM: 10113023), SURYANI
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/31149
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The characteristics of sharia banking system which is based on profit sharing principles provide an alternative banking system which is mutually beneficial for both the community and bank, and also highlight fairness aspect in transactions and investments, accentuate the values of togetherness and brotherhood in production, and avoid speculative activities in financial transactions. Sharia system can be applied in two places, in the calculation of profit sharing between traders and investors as well as in the calculation of profit and loss of sharia bank. In this study, the sharia finance balance is constructed and then results are used to calculate profit and loss based on Monti Klein method. Furthermore, forecasting of sharia bank profit for the next twelve months is done using decomposition method. Calculation of the profit of five sharia banks for the next twelve months is done using three methods: forecasting of existing data in monti klein calculations, forecasting of monti klein profit and loss, and forecasting of original profit based on data from Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan). Simulation results showed that from five banks there are at least two methods that have the same pattern, the profits obtained from those two methods are not too different, which means that they have a relatively small error between them. This indicates that the bank that has the smallest relative error between the two methods is the bank that already has a stable balance sheet. However, the other two banks are not well-known enough in Indonesia, so their balance sheets tend to be unstable. Analysis of sharia bank profit and loss aims to provide the information that can support investors, creditors and other parties to estimate the amount and uncertainty in profit sharing and dividends in the future.