VERIFICATION OF DROUGHT SEVERITY PREDICTION USING CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) VERSION 2

• Main Author: Dwiandani, Amalia
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Geologi, hidrologi & meteorologi
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/33699
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Drought is one of the phenomena that have a direct impact on the lives of people and the environment. Cilacap area which is largely agricultural region is one of the areas with the highest risk of drought in Central Java. Based on that, prediction of drought in Cilacap district needs to be done. At this time, to predict drought can be used seasonal prediction, one of the seasonal predictions provided is Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2. CFSv2 is a seasonal prediction model issued by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). So in this study, the CFSv2 data output rainfall prediction will be used as input in the calculation of the SPI-3 to quantify the severity of the drought in Cilacap. However, the data output CFSv2 rainfall prediction can not represent climate information at the local scale. So based on this, the output prediction data CFSv2 will downscaled with statistical methods, Bias Correction. The results of the output CFSv2 drought prediction is then verified by the Brier Score. These results indicate that the predicted results between SPI-3 Corrected and SPI-3 Raw (not corrected) is not much different, as well as the Brier value indicating that the both output prediction, CFSv2 corrected and CFSv2 Raw have good accuracy qualitatively. Based on the predicted drought results by CFSv2 to observed drought in 2006 in the district of Cilacap, the near normal drought that provides broad impact of drought amounted to 929 hectares in the amount of 75%.