SIMULATION PREDICTION OF CORN PRODUCTIVITY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF ENSO IN EAST NUSA TENGGARA

• Main Author: Lian, Sona
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Geologi, hidrologi & meteorologi
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/33851
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

East Nusa Tenggara is one of area in Indonesia which is experiencing a shift in rainy season and dry season during the ENSO phenomena. In the calculation of Pearson correlation, Spearman, and Kendall's Tau, the negative results indicate that the relation between rainfall and Nino3.4 is inversely proportional. When El Nino occurs, the amount of rainfall will decrease, on the other hand when La Nina occurs, the amount of rainfall will increase. Copula Frank is used to identify the time lags relationships between ENSO and rainfall in East Nusa Tenggara. The result shows that the influence of ENSO on rainfall is at time lag 0. That result indicates that ENSO’s impacts will be felt in East Nusa Tenggara in the same month with the rising temperatures in the East Pacific area. ENSO is becoming indirect impact on the corn productivity, because corn cultivation in East Nusa Tenggara is strongly influenced by rainfall. Therefore, DSSAT v.46 is used to simulate and predict the corn productivity in order to get the maximum harvests when ENSO occured, using planting management which is not to plant at the same time in which strong El-Nino and La-Nina exist.