INDONESIAN SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS MOVEMENT ABROAD: HYBRID MODEL APPLICATION OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND AGENT-BASED SIMULATION

• Main Author: Inayati, Tutik
• Format: Dissertations
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/37111
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

While technology cannot be left out in today’s society, the gap in technology advancement between developed and less developed countries is getting grander. With the addition of globalisation, technology has become a tool for connecting people throughout the world. When technology becomes a priority, developed countries invite highly skilled talents, including from less developed countries. This results in discrepancy of scientists and engineers in the source country, or what we habitually call ‘brain drain’. The movement of scientists and engineers internationally is a crucial problem for Indonesia, since the outmigration of high-skilled human capital is not a priority to set, yet Indonesians are more interested to work abroad due to higher life quality, more appreciation on the skill, and more advanced research facilities. The lack of science and engineering university graduates also shows that Indonesia has low stock of scientists and engineers. Another condition is Indonesia’s annual budget for research and development is very low compared to its neighbouring countries. Therefore, while condition is not very supportive for scientists and engineers to be productive, developed countries can attract them to be productive abroad. This result in low economic development gained from national technology development. As one of pioneering researches about international movement of scientists and engineers in Indonesia, it is intended for Indonesian government to take a look into this circumstance more urgently. The research has three objectives. First, is to model the mechanism of Indonesian scientists and engineers’ movements that can collect perspective of stakeholders and to understand how these movements affect technology and economy development. Second objective is to model the behaviour of scientists and engineers regarding their decision of studying and working and what factors may affect them. The last objective is to conduct policy scenarios and how policy recommendations can influence technology and economic development. This research utilises hybrid model application of System Dynamics and Agent-based Modelling and Simulation. While System Dynamics can be applied in macro perspective of the country’s condition, Agent-based Modelling and Simulation can be applied in individual’s choices and behaviour to complete System Dynamics model. However, since data that can be publicly accessed and ii needed in this research is very little, the model and simulation apply several assumptions from literature reviews and interviews to make realistic individual choices and behaviour. Data collection is conducted in three ways: questionnaires, interviews, and secondary data available publicly. Questionnaires result, even though does not have many samples, is analysed through descriptive statistics and binary regression model on students’ abroad intention to return. In System Dynamics model and simulation, parameters are seen from macroscopic perspective. There are two types of simulation’ purposes: first, is to search which parameter can have most optimal solution that can be used as policy recommendation, and second is to do sensitivity of uncertain variables using three standard testing (best to worst case). Five policy scenarios are Government funding for universities, increase in scholarship, incentives for attracting students abroad to return home, research and development expenditure, and incentives for patents produced. From the simulation, among five scenarios there is one scenario that has the most optimal result among others; that is increase in scholarships. To justify this result, eight parameters are set to seek for parameters that have large influences: rate of return of high-skilled abroad, GDP for tertiary education, input rate high-skilled Indonesia, patents per high-skilled, postgraduate enrolment Indonesia, R&D expenditure, scholarship, and undergraduate enrolment rate Indonesia. In hybrid model, there are four types of agents that are being analysed through agent-based model style and four variables on System Dynamics side. To test the sensitivity of this model and what factors may be influential, four parameters are applied: adding scholarship for undergraduate program, adding scholarship for postgraduate program, tolerance level of natives in Indonesia, and tolerance level of natives abroad. These parameters are broken down into three levels: worst, moderate, and best level. From all 3,240 trial runs based on four parameters, the conclusion that can be achieved is that adding scholarship both for undergraduate and postgraduate students can significantly change the number of students, scientists and engineers, the number of patents, and GDP. Therefore, from two types of modelling, educational policy giving scholarship for undergraduate and postgraduate programs show significant results for development and innovation, quantitatively. The next recommendation is to increase research facilities to arouse technology innovation and giving appropriate base for scientists and engineers abroad to return home. The last recommendation is to connect to private industries on research activities basis and in addition market the technology innovation to the industries. Further research can include more complete data from the Government to generate optimal simulation results. Secondly, diaspora is one effort that Indonesian Government tries to link in order to have knowledge transfer, next research discussion should be about whether diaspora is effective to compensate the limited scientists and engineers, domestically.