EXPLORATION OF EPIGRO METHOD TO DETERMINE THE PEAK AND TOTAL CASES OF OUTBREAKS

• Main Author: Juanda, Ari
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/39193
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The arising of many outbreaks lately, such as the case of 2014/2015 Ebola outbreak and the increasing number of cases of many outbreaks, such as the case of measles have pushed many researcher and scientists and public health community to think new ideas for developing mathematical models that can provide useful information for public health community. Scientists from different fields extending from medicine and molecular biology to computer science and applied mathematics have teamed up for getting an accurate model of potentially urgent situations when an outbreak occur. On this article, we will discuss a data-driven method, EpiGro, which can be applied to cumulative case reports to estimate the order of magnitude of the duration, peak, and ultimate size of an ongoing outbreak. This method uses inverted parabola estimation obtained from historic and ongoing epidemics, does not require knowledge or estimation of disease transmission parameters, and runs quickly due to its mathematical simplicity. We will also provide modeling considerations that justify this approach and discuss its limitations and weaknesses.