DEMAND FORECASTING OPTIMIZATION AND RAW MATERIAL PLANNING OF AYAM GEPREK CRISBAR CIMAHI’S BRANCH

• Main Author: Ihsaanuddin, Hafizh
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/40809
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Forecasting is the activity of a business function that estimates the sales and use of products so that products can be made in the right amount. Forecasting is the expectation of demand in the future based on several estimated variables, often based on historical time series data. The importance of accurate sales forecasting can be seen in all aspects of restaurant operations. Restaurants use raw materials and produce products that are easily damaged or rotten, and therefore, the company require a demand forecasting method that can provide a high level of accuracy and quickly respond to changes in demand. Accurate and measurable sales will also produce effects and strategies for every decision in the company. However, there are still many restaurants that do not apply yet forecasting demand, which one is the Ayam Geprek Crisbar Cimahi's Branch. Forecasting demand carried out by Ayam Geprek Crisbar Cimahi's Branch still uses intuition, and even daily operational raw materials have not been noticed. Determination of products that must be produced and the purchase of raw materials that must be ordered for production is determined based on previous sales quantity and with intuition from the head employee of the branch itself. It's often caused operational ineffectiveness such as understock of raw materials, overstock of raw materials, overstock cooked product and underserved customers. Moreover, Ayam Geprek Crisbar Cimahi's Branch does not have a large inventory, they just have one refrigerator and one 200L-chest freezer that just can stock daily uses raw material that delivered by suppliers at morning. So every day they closed, some overstock raw materials and cooked product become waste. Ayam Geprek Crisbar Cimahi’s Branch has experienced spoiled raw material and product waste until now, in Januari until May recorded approximately 175 kg of various stale food ingredients and cooked unsold product were wasted due to overstock but no specific record of what and how much the items it is. They also experienced an early closing 30 times from Januari until May with a potential loss of sales of 800 servings that approximately is about lost Rp11.600.000 because the restaurant have to close early that mostly caused by understock of the main menu product, because the supporting ingredients to produce the product had run out. To reduce this problem, this research developed an implementation of forecasting demand and then calculate the right raw material needed for the next period. This method was chosen because it was considered appropriate to answer the problems that were faced by Ayam Geprek Crisbar Cimahi’s Branch itself. It is known that the best time series forecasting method for forecasting the sales of ayam geprek crispy packages at Ayam Geprek Crisbar Cimahi’s Branch in the next period, from January 2019 to July 2019 is the Seasonal ARIMA method. This method was chosen because it has the lowest error rate when compared to other time series forecasting methods, the MSE is 2442.17. The other method is the simple moving average that has MSE 3228,84 and simple exponential smoothing that have MSE 2740,94. The proposed demand forecasting has been compared with the current production planning on 1-7 June 2019. It can improve the company’s revenue approximately Rp1.022.250 and reduce the potential for waste that occurs from overstock. This research also proposes a raw materials planning for the companies to reduce the problem of lack of some raw materials so that the production of products becomes smooth with complete raw materials.