ANALYSIS AND PROPOSED IMPROVEMENT OF FORECASTING AND INVENTORY CONTROL OF CIGARETTES AT PT. ABC

• Main Author: Maringga, Firdaus
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/41210
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Retail is a business sector which involves selling merchandise and services to consumers for personal, family and household needs (Berman and Evan: 2001: 23). PT ABC is a retail company which located in Cianjur District. The problems of PT ABC is no forecasting system and no inventory system. Purchasing of cigaretees by two week. The procurement of cigarette supplies is done every two weeks and the decisions made by procurement are based solely on consensus panels and sales data. Purchase data used is sales data two weeks earlier plus 20% of cigarette units. The fact that occurs in the field causes excess cigarette inventories and results in storage costs. There are 73 brands of cigarettes sold in PT. ABC. The cigarette is supplied from 10 suppliers in the Cianjur area. The type of research used by researchers is quantitative research using primary data through interviews to get root causes, and secondary data as the main data for problem solving calculations. Sales data of cigarettes will use ABC analysis for clasification. Cigarettes class. Class A contains the highest profit of cigarette, class B contains medium profit, class C contains lowest profit of cigarettes. After categorization, next is forecast the cigarettes demand starts from June 2019 to August 2019. The forecast will adjusted by data pattern such as data trend, seasonal, and stationary. Data trend pattern use Linear Regression Analysis and Exponential Smoothing with Trend method. The calculation of seasonal data pattern use Centered Moving Average and Seasonal Demand. Forecast with stationary data pattern use Moving Average and Weighted Moving Average. Forecast with accuracy use Mean Absolute Deviation. The best method to forecast is finding the lowest value of MAD. Class A cigarettes use Q-model, Class B and Class C use P-model. The total data used Q-model is 13 cigarettes and P-model is 60 cigarettes. The output of the forecast and inventory control system will improve the current inventory. This research will use 95% confidential interval in determining safety stock and reorder scheduling. Application of forecasting and inventory control system systems at PT. ABC will be evaluated every three months. At the end of August a record of the data and the time of delivery of the sales supplier will be evaluated and recalculated for forecasting and inventory control systems in September 2019 to November 2019.