THE FUTURE OF INDONESIAN UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY 2045 USING TRANSFORMATIVE SCENARIO PLANNING APPROACH

• Main Author: Kharisma Suko, Barkun
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/42542
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

President Joko Widodo in 2015 launched the vision of Indonesia in 2045. To achieve this vision, 4 (four) Indonesian Development Pillars of 2045 were initiated which became a reference in realizing the progress and achievement of Indonesia's national long-term development namely: 1). Human Development and Mastery of Science and Technology, 2). Sustainable Economic Development, 3). Equity Development, and 4). National Resilience and Good Governance. Indonesia is targeted to become a developed country and one of the largest economies in the world by being driven by investment and trade, industry, tourism, maritime and services, and supported by reliable infrastructure, and strong food, energy and water security. Commitment to the environment continues to be maintained for sustainable development. Furthermore, it is stated that Energy is the capital of development through increasing the role of renewable energy. The purpose of this study is to analyze upstream oil and gas industry in Indonesia in 2045 by using the Transformative Scenario Planning approach. Furthermore determine which scenario is the best and make recommendations on what policies can be done by the Government to achieve the best scenario. This study uses the Transformative scenario planning approach. Considering the limited time and resources possessed, instead of using focus group discussion, this study use the interview approach for related stakeholders which will then be validated by using the Delphi method. In this study four scenarios were constructed, namely “The Avengers”, “The Upside Down”, “The Day After Tomorrow” and “Back to The Future”. These scenarios are expected to be used to support transform the Indonesian oil and gas industry towards a better way to realize Indonesia's vision of 2045.