DEVELOPING SCENARIOS TO ACHIEVE THE TARGET OF 23% RENEWABLE ENERGY MIX IN ELECTRICITY POWER GENERATION IN 2025

• Main Author: Anugerah Putro Hartono, Ronggo
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/42565
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

At present, the development of power plants that use renewable energy in Indonesia is still not maximized and there are many obstacles in its journey. Encouraging the use of renewable energy is expected to reduce the use of fossil energy and reduce air and water pollution due to the mining and use of oil and coal. Indonesia is one of the countries incorporated in the Paris agreement, this agreement was made at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, which took effect from 2020 to 2030 to maintain the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. In the projection of the energy mix in 2025 divided into 54.6% coal, 22% natural gas (including LNG), 23% EBT and 0.4% fuel in accordance with government policies to increase the use of EBT and gas, and reduce fuel consumption. For this reason, a good plan is needed using a scenario planning approach to get the best conditions desired by the government. The purpose of this study is not only to provide an overview of the target condition of the energy mix generation of new renewable energy by 23% in 2025, but can see several other scenarios to achieve the best conditions using a scenario planning approach using primary data and secondary data to be able to determine the motivating factors that are influential as well as the main uncertainty factors that have the greatest impact and potential strategies that will be faced. From this study, four scenarios were obtained, namely "Fire Storm", "Green Forest", "Yellow Light" and "Black Thunder". The Green Forest scenario is the best scenario that illustrates Indonesia in an ideal condition, where economic growth has increased and can achieve the targets set by the government, supported by sophisticated technology that supports the development of new renewable energy. Harmonization occurs between fossil energy and new renewable energy that can realize national energy security and provide benefits to environmental & social values that are expected to be used to help efforts to achieve the target of 23% renewable energy generation by 2025.