FINANCIAL DISTRESS PREDICTION (CASE STUDY: PT. RINDU SEMAR JAYA)

• Main Author: Fikri Nurfadilah, Reza
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/42929
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The growth of competing companies from the package delivery service industry has caused PT Rindu Semar Jaya to experience a decline in performance. Companies engaged in the field of shipping services now it has been found in the country, at this time according to data from ASPERINDO (Association of Indonesian Express, Post and Logistics Shipping Services) there are more than 400 shipping companies (expeditions) registered in Indonesia. One of them is the financial performance, which is the decline in the company's net profit for two consecutive years that occurred from 2016 to 2018, causing the company in general to experience financial distress. Therefore, to predict financial distress needs to be done to be an evaluation material so that companies can take the right steps to improve performance and anticipate risks that might occur to the company. The case study was conducted using the Altman Z-Score Revised Four Model (1993) method of the PT Rindu Semar Jaya company for the period between 2014 and 2018. The purpose of this research is to predict financial distress in the company and find out the causal factors based on the Altman Z-Score Revised Four Model (1993) method. By using four variables namely Net Working Capital divided by Total Assets (X1), Retained Earnings divided by Total Assets (X2), Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) divided by Total Assets (X3) and Book Value of Equity divided by Book Value of Liabilities (X4 ) and followed by the calculation of DuPont analysis as supporting data to get the final results of the study. Based on the Altman Z-Score Revised Four Model (1993) method, the company entered the distress zone in 2014 and 2015 with a final Z-Score below 1.23 and followed by an increase in the final gray zone value in 2016, with a Z-Score above 1.23 of 1.90. However, there was a decrease in the value of Z-Score in 2017 and 2018 to be 1.77 and 1.61. In general, the causes of a decline in the value of the company's Z-Score are Net Working Capital and negative EBIT. The company's EBIT, which tends to drop dramatically for two years in a row, is very influential while the results of the DuPont Analysis calculations show a fluctuating increase in the cost of services from 2014 to 2018. From this study, the results of the Altman Z-Score Revised Four Model (1993) method and DuPont Analysis showed that the leading cause of a company categorized as financial distress was the magnitude of the company's Cost of Service from year to year. The action that must take is to reduce the value of the Cost of Services components to the maximum extent possible. In order to encourage an increase in the company's net income.