CORAL REEF COVER PROJECTION IN 2100 AT SMALL ISLANDS IN NORTH PAPUA

• Main Author: Ikhlas Wira Rohmat, Fauzan
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/43964
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Coral reef is one of the most important natural resource that affect the life of ocean ecosystem and human. Indonesia as a part of world coral triangle become one of places with highest ocean biodiversity, especially for coral reef. However, the existence of coral reef in Indonesia now in poor condition due to coral bleaching and ocean acidification factors. Therefore, a methode is needed to project the exisxtence of coral reef in the future. This research was carried out to find out coral reef cover in 2100 in the North Waters of Papua as part of the world coral triangle. This research using sea surface temperature data from integrated marine observation system (IMOS) satellite from 2000 to 2018 and partial pressure of CO2 data from Nusa Manggala Expedition in 2018. The Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output (COMBO) model and scenario RCP2.6 with 2 ºC increasing of SST and 450ppm pCO2 in 2100 issued by Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in The Fifht Assesmenet Report (AR5) are used to proceed that datas. Results indicate that coral bleaching affected by sea surface temperatures rise. The influence from CO2 rise in Northen Waters of Papua currently is normal, no direct effect is seen. Massive coral bleaching projection in The Northern Waters of Papua is occurring in the range of 2033 to 2064 with the remaining coral cover in 2100 ranging from 6,95% to 9,59%.