SUPPLY DEMAND ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRY CEMENT IN ORDER TO BALANCE NATIONAL NEEDS: SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL APPROACH

• Main Author: Kencana Putri, Tirta
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/44113
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

One of the development of non-oil and gas industry that can make a high contribution to GDP in Indonesia is the cement industry. Cement material is one of the most valuable material resources in strategic development, especially infrastructure development in the form of roads, bridges, airports, ports, buildings, and so on. Until 2017, national availability of cement is adequate, but in some regions cement are difficult to obtain and have to supplied from outside the region. Allegedly there is an imbalance in the distribution of cement regionally that will affect the balance of national cement supply. To further ensure a sustainable supply of cement, this problem of imbalance distribution needs to be addressed, so an analysis of regional mapping needs to be done on the state of the cement market from upstream to downstream to meet the supply of key raw materials to cement plants in each region in Indonesia. This study found that if there were no supply chain interventions or natural conditions, based on data from 2000 to 2017, the regions estimated to experience cement shortages from 2018 to 2025 would be Sumatra, Bali-Nustra, amd Papua. Meanwhile Kalimantan experienced a shortage of cement from 2018 to 2020. To meet its regional cement necessities, from 2018 to 2020 these four regions received cement supplies from Java and Sulawesi. Meanwhile from 2021 to 2025 Kalimantan experiences oversupply, so this region becomes the supplier to other regions. If the demand scenario is increased by increasing the GRDP rate and population by 1%, the region which estimate to experience a shortage of cement from 2018 to 2025 are Sumatra, Bali-Nustra, and Papua. Meanwhile Kalimantan experienced a shortage of cement from 2018 to 2021. To meet its regional cement necessities, from 2018 to 2021 the four regions receive cement supplies from Java and Sulawesi. Whereas from 2022 to 2025 Kalimantan experiences oversupply so this region becomes the supplier to other regions. If the production scenario is increased by increasing the rate of production utility by 1%, the region estimated to experience a shortage of cement from 2018 to 2025 is Sumatra, Bali-Nustra, and Papua. Meanwhile Kalimantan experienced a shortage of cement from 2018 to 2019. To meet its regional cement necessities, from 2018 to 2021 the four regions received cement supplies from Java and Sulawesi. Whereas from 2020 to 2025 Kalimantan experienced excess cement, so this region helped supply cement to other regions. This research concludes that the availability of cement raw material resources until 2025 are excessive. This research provides recommendations in the form of suggestions to increase production utilities so that national cement necessities are met.