pipa penyalur, metode probabilistik, kegagalan, khi-kuadrat, resampling, sisa umur, cadangan danaESTIMATION OF RESERVE FUND FOR THE FAILURE OF OIL AND GAS COMPANIES’ PIPELINE BASED ON DEFFECTIVE INSPECTION DATA OF MTM

• Main Author: Romantika, Tara
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/44310
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

In this Final Project, the probability of failure Pt (Z(t) ? 0) of pipeline in Oil and Gas Companies in Indonesia, which is caused by corrosion, is being modeled with probabilistic method. This method represents the actual state through the value of failure probability which occurs on the pipeline by utilizing inspection data. Those inspection data are given sequential index integral of observation, ?. However, for the diameter D, initial thickness k0, and maximum pressure (yield strength) of pipeline ?yield, are given their representative distributions. Meanwhile, the operational pressure of ?op pipeline is determined by the respective Oil and Gas Company. Probability of failure Pt (Z(t) ? 0) of pipeline is influenced by two factors: (1) Endurance Value Nc of pipeline and (2) load value N(t) given to the pipeline. The failure of pipeline to function occurs when the Endurance Value is less than or equal the load value, scientifically written as Nc ? N(t). Those factors are not given from the result of pipeline inspection. Therefore, this Final Project conducts probability of failure modeling Pt (Z(t) ? 0) of pipeline by utilizing any given information. In the calculation of probability of failure, sample of each random variable is needed, yet only obtained within one observation sequence. Consequently, it is necessary to conduct resampling for the entire random variable used. Whilst, index integral needs to be tested with chi-square to determine its best approximation distribution, before conducting random variable resampling. After obtaining the probability of failure, the failure rate ?(t) can be calculated based on the determined operational pressure ?op. From that calculation, we can conclude that the greater the operational pressure ?op given to the pipeline, the shorter the productive age of the pipeline. Eventually, the reserve fund ????????? of Oil and Gas Company is calculated with present value referring to the price of the pipe A0 which is desired by the respective company.