AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATION GROWTH MODEL OF REPUBLIC OF CHINA

• Main Author: Natania, Gracia
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/45594
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been the most populated country in the world for over 200 years. This final project aims to model the age-structured population growth model of the People’s Republic of China in order to be used to predict age distribution in the future. This model can be taken as consideration during the enforcement of population control policies such as the one child policy. The method used is the Leslie model which will be further modified into a Leslielogistic model which takes the carrying capacity of the country and the influence of one-child policy into consideration. The data used are the data of female population of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since the year of the one-child policy enactment, which started from 1979. This data will be used to determine the parameters of the model. The simulations of the Leslie model, the Leslie-logistical model, and the Leslie-logistical model with the influence of one-child policy become the comparison tool to determine the best model to predict the population growth of the People’s Republic of China in the future. The analysis and discussion of the three models are carried out to conclude if the three models are able to describe the population growth of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Model simulations show that the Leslie model is a good model for representing population growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) started from 1979. Furthermore, the Leslie-logistics model with the influence of one-child policy can be used to determine the right time and duration to enact a one-child policy in the future while keeping the population number stable.