FORECASTING OF INDONESIA PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DEMAND

• Main Author: Ridalta Putra, Iqbal
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Ekonomi tanah & energi
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/46187
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

This study is about Indonesia's energy focused on petroleum product supply and demand that has long been dominated by crude oil. Energy is one of the primary sources of national?s revenue; besides that, it is also a strategic sector and has a vital role in achieving the economic goal for sustainable development. With increasing energy demand, in the amount of 36 million barrels of oils equivalent (BOE) per year from 2000 to 2014, that condition did not merely follow by Indonesia?s capacity to supply energy that emerges deficit on it. Crude oil production, which becomes the main contributor to petroleum product supply declines with a rate of 3.18% in 2018. The author presents a system dynamics model, which considers the relation between supply and consumption aspects of the existing petroleum product system in Indonesia. We examined the petroleum products system throughout variables that exists in the causal loop diagram. Variables are listed by identifying key components in crude oil supply, petroleum product supply, and consumption side. After composing into systematic form in the causal loop diagram, we formulate the stock-flow diagram to analyze the petroleum product supply and demand quantitatively. In this model, we made the limited resources in crude oil as a constraint in simulating projected petroleum product supply. We conducted the simulation using system dynamics, which result in the forecasted fulfilment of petroleum products consumption by petroleum products supply from 2018 until 2025 using historical data from the “Handbook of Energy and Economics Statistics Indonesia”. The result based on three scenarios shows that Indonesia's availability in petroleum product supply faces a deficit in upcoming years. Scenario 1 with business as usual parameter shows gap happen since 2022 ranging from 16,806 thousand BOE in 2022 and increase until 139,131 thousand BOE in 2025. Scenario 2 with EOR implementation creates a deficit since 2023 with a lower amount of energy as much as 26,174 thousand BOE in 2022 and increase until 94,275 thousand BOE in 2025. Scenario 3 with biofuel production gives longer supply-consumption meet until 2024, and in 2025 the gap will be 30,107 thousand BOE. The novelty of the new system dynamics model is in the additional insight to formulate a solution to adequately allocate economic and technical resources to optimize the fulfilment of long term petroleum product consumption through effective policy formulation.