ANALYSIS OF ENSO SIGNAL PROPAGATION OVER MARITIME CONTINENT TO DETERMINE EL NINO PRECURSOR

• Main Author: Novrizal, Wildan
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/46590
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The purpose of this study is to determine El Niño precursor from ENSO signal propagation over Maritime Continent. El Niño tends to cause less rainfall on Maritime Continent. This reduced rainfall can cause drought and have an impact on various fields. Because of the enormous impact of El Niño, it is important to know the precursor of El Niño. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) monitoring is one way to find out El Niño condition. However, these data located in Pacific region, so El Niño observed when it already formed. Therefore, it is necessary to determine El Niño precursor from signal propagation over Maritime Continent. The data used in this study are Nino 3.4 index, zonal wind and Relative Humidty (RH) from radiosonde and reanalysis (ECMWF ERA-Interim). The Nino 3.4 index is used to monitor ENSO event, zonal wind and RH data are used as a proxy of Walker Circulation and water vapor, respectively. The methods used in this study are simple linear regression and zero phase Butterworth bandpass filter. The main results of this study show that ENSO signals over Maritime Continent that can be used as El Niño precursor from zonal wind variables in 850 hPa are the convergence of the easterly and westerly winds, representing the center of convergence, and maximum westerly wind. While the signals that can be used as El Niño precursor from RH variables in 500 hPa are maximum RH, representing the convergence center, and changes from positive to negative RH.