CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ON MANGROVE IN SAYUNG MANGROVE CONSERVATION PARK DEMAK REGENCY CENTRAL JAVA

• Main Author: Haidar Helmi, Muhammad
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/46625
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Mangrove ecosystems are the most vulnerable ecosystems affected by climate change, whereas many mangroves provide ecosystem services, including provide a nursery ground for fishes, bird nesting places, and micro-climate regulator. The impact of climate change affect mangroves ecosystem in the north coast of Demak, Central Java, specifically in the Sayung Mangrove Conservation Park, which is vulnerable to coastal floding due to sea level rise as a result of climate change. Meanwhile, the local government planned to make the location as a mangrove conservation spot and ecotourism. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a field research for conservation consideration in the location. The conducted research is the climate change vulnerability assessment on mangroves in Sayung Mangrove Conservation Park. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability of mangroves in the Sayung Mangrove Conservation Park to climate change and determine various adaptation action for mangroves in the Sayung Mangrove Conservation Park. Mangrove ecosystems in the Sayung Mangrove Conservation Park were analyzed for its vulnerability using the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment by assessed the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The exposure factor was assessed from the projected changes in precipitation, and sea level rise data obtained from BMKG publication and the Semarang Department of Fisheries and Maritime Affairs. The sensitivity factor was assessed from basal area of mangrove species and recruitment, which are obtained by vegetation analysis using line and plot transect method, and also seaward edge retreat and changes in mangrove area are obtained by processing Maxar Technologies year 2014 and 2019 satelite imageries, while the adaptive capacity factor was analyzed based on elevation above mangrove data which obtained from processing DEM (Digital Elevation Model) satellite imagery in 2018. All The variable is given a score of 1-5 according to the level of vulnerability and then summed and divided by the number of variables, so that the final score of mangrove vulnerability to climate change in the Sayung Mangrove Conservation Park will be obtained. Based on the results of the research, for the components of the exposure factor, it is known that the projected change in precipitation in the Demak region is decreased to -20% so the vulnerability score is 4, and for the relative sea-level rise there is an increase in sea level of 7.4 cm/year so the vulnerability score is 4. For the sensitivity components it is found that the basal mangrove area is 14.17 m2/ha or with a vulnerability score 3, for mangrove recruitment it is found in Avicennia marina species with 8 seedlings so the vulnerability score is 4. The GIS data result for satellite imagery qualitatively shows that there has been a retreat for 10,57 ha area of seaward edge and 2,5 ha reduction in mangrove areas, so the vulnerability score of each variable is 3. For the adaptive capacity component, it is found that the elevation above mangrove shown by satellite imagery illustrates the unavailability of elevation so that the vulnerability score is 5. The results of the all vulnerability score are then summed and divided by the number of measured variables so that the mangrove vulnerability to climate change in the Sayung mangrove conservation park is 3.7 (moderate to high vulnerability). With these results, the adaptation efforts that need to be prioritized are the planning of land migration areas and supported by managing mangrove accretion.