SCENARIO PLANNING FOR A BANKING INSTITUTION IN THE FACE OF FUTURE CHALLENGES

• Main Author: Yani Saputra, Hendri
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/46939
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

In the next decade, a new wave of disruption more forceful combined effects of technological disruption, changes to the nature of work, demographic shifts, and climate change could have serious implications and may also change how banking is done. Technological change is so fast over the next five years, financial services will be dramatically disrupted. The future of the banking sector is growing increasingly digital. Today’s digital age and hyper-connected environment requires banks to re-imagine their business continuously. Many forces have major effect on the banking industry in the future that cannot be underestimated and considered as the biggest risk. To better prepare where uncertainty and change are high, the banking should investigate those several uncertainty and possible alternative futures through scenario planning. Key focal issue is: “How is banking business of the Bank for the next 5 years in the face of future challenges?” with the driving forces are Government Policy and Regulation, Economic Climate, Political Stability, Trend / Lifestyle, Customer Needs, Market Competition, Technology Push / Product Innovation, Pricing, Green financing / Environmentally Friendly Business. Technology Push/Product Innovation and Economic Climate as critical uncertainties then combined to construct scenario framework. The scenarios are Catenaccio, Counter Attack, Tiki-Taka, and Total Football. Early Warning Signals as leading indicators of each scenario for the next 5 years uses the measures from technological and economic forces. Monitor the EWS periodically as a leading indicator can be as early as possible to apply by the management so the company can better prepared.