DYNAMICAL MODEL OF AE. AEGYPTI WITH CLIMATE AND SPATIAL FACTOR

• Main Author: Khairudin Sukandar, Kamal
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/47775
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Until the early of June 2020, Indonesia has still known as the endemic country for Dengue Fever. According to the data retrieved from various sources, the number of Dengue patients in Indonesia is fluctuating each year. Specifically, the fluctuation is also portrayed by the regional data. Automatically, the regional outbreak status of Dengue becomes uncertain. In order to minimize the impact of the dengue outbreak, dengue prevention is carried out by the government, such as the Early Warning System (EWS) for Dengue. In this report, the EWS is constructed by a deterministic and statistic approach. A deterministic model of ae. Aegypti population is constructed by involving the climate and spatial factors. The climate factors involved are relative humidity, temperature, and rainfall which affect the entomological parameters of ae. Aegypti. whereas spatial factor, the area of the observed region, affects the carrying capacity of ae. Aegypty larvae. The alternative Early warning system models are constructed for 5 regions in Jakarta and 4 regions in Bali by associating the output of the deterministic model and the data of outbreak with logistic regression. This results will be visualized in choropleth maps for 5 regions in Jakarta and 4 regions in Bali. Further, this approach also can be used for projecting the outbreak status in those regions. The projections are conducted by applying the predicted climate data to the constructed models.