ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKETS OF EAST ASIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA DURING THE 1997 ASIAN CRISIS AND THE 2008 GLOBAL CRISIS AS EARLY WARNING FOR ECONOMIC CRISIS DUE TO COVID-19 USING MST METHOD

• Main Author: Hans, Alfonsa
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/49105
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Econophysics is a branch of science that utilizes physics methods and perspectives to analyze various things in economics. In the stock market, stock price movements have a random pattern so econophysics is used to analyze the stock price movements. The movement of stock prices is an indicator of a company’s financial peformance so analysis with econophysics can be used to describe economic conditions. During the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008 global crisis, the financial crises hit all countries, including countries in Asia, causing several stock market indices to decline. During the last 5 months (December 2019-April 2020), the COVID-19 outbreak had a negative impact on the world economy and caused the stock market indixes in Asian countries to decline. In this research, network theory is used to analyze the behavior of the stock markets of countries in East and Southeast Asia during the 1997 Asian crisis, the 2008 global crisis, and the COVID-19 outbreak. The method used in this research is the minimum spanning tree method to form stock market network. In this research, the formed stock market network will be analyzed based on the form of network topology to determine its alignment with the economic conditions. In addition, several parameters of network properties such as the average correlation coefficient, normalized tree length, and centrality value are used to analyze the stock market network and determine the most influential and important stock market. Then, the changes in behavior of the stock network are analyzed in relation to the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008 global crisis. The results of this analysis are then used as an early warning of an economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 outbreak.