PENENTUAN KELAYAKAN INVESTASI KILANG MINYAK YANG TERINTEGRASI DENGAN INDUSTRI PETROKIMIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS OPSI RIIL

• Main Author: Lukmanto Kiswo, Edwin
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Ilmu alam dan matematika
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/49356
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

This study aims to analyze the application of real options to the project feasibility or value of an oil refinery development in Indonesia. This oil refinery is built because petroleum and petrochemical products need to be integrated. The petrochemical’s data used in this study is secondary data from the Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia about 18 (eighteen) commodities that were being prioritized by the Ministry of Industry. The petrochemical import is analyzed using Principal Component Analysis to obtain the most dominant raw materials which is oil. Furthermore, Time Series Analysis will be used to calculate the value of petroleum import in the near future and the price of crude oil based on West Texas Intermediate (WTI). After knowing the prices needed to build an oil refinery and the cashflow of each year, the refinery is ready to be built. Oil refinery that is going to be built has already have a positive Net Present Value (NPV), that means the project is feasible to run. The final stage is the adoption of real options to see if there is a significant change to the value of the project. The usage of real options are going to be limited to 3 (three) types of options.