STUDY OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE CMIP5 MODEL OUTPUT AFTER THE 1991 PINATUBO ERUPTION WITH ENERGY BUDGET ANALYSIS

• Main Author: Alfina Salsabila, Rahma
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/50694
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The 1991 Pinatubo eruption had significant impacts on post-eruption global temperature anomalies, both from observations and from The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model output. In this study, we examine temperature changes after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption with energy budget analysis that is focused over the Maritime Continent by using CMIP5 model output. Three CMIP5 models are compared with observational datasets to select the most representative model. Anomaly calculations are performed on the selected model data, which has previously been applied smoothing and ENSO removal procedure to the data. Then, we analyze temperature changes after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption with energy budget analysis in the 1989 – 1993. The changes in temperature are clearly seen after the eruption and last for 24 months until the end of the analysis period, with the largest negative anomaly, 0.38°C. Based on the energy and radiation balance approach, decreases in temperatures are seen due to negative net energy (?????????=0), which average anomaly for one year after the eruption reaches -2,93 W.m-2. Significant decrease of downwelling shortwave radiation (??????????,????????????), with anomalous mean value of -3,70 W.m-2 has a major effect on the value of ?????????=0. Decreases in ??????????,???????????? is caused by increases in reflected shortwave radiation at Top of Atmosphere (??????????,????????????).